Temporal and Spatial Estimation of Food Security Status of Households in Nigeria

Results and Discussion

In Table 1, the data from Wave 2 and Wave 3 of the survey revealed the households’ socioeconomic status. The discussion of the socioeconomic characteristics of the households in Nigeria in Wave 2 and Wave 3 aligns with existing research on demographic and economic changes among Nigerian households [11,12]. The mean age of the respondents is approximately 43 years in Wave 2. This increases to 46 years in Wave 3, affirming that the majority of households in Nigeria are in their industrious age. The majority of household members fall within the 18-49 age group, accounting for 73.7% in Wave 2 and reducing slightly to 68.14% in Wave 3. The increase in the proportion of individuals aged 50-65 years (19.24% to 24.01%) suggests ageing trends within households. This trend is consistent with previous studies that highlight the gradual ageing of Nigerian households, driven by improved life expectancy and declining birth rates [13].

Table 1:Socioeconomic Characteristics of Households in Nigeria.

The gender of households remains predominantly male-headed (95.5%) across both waves, highlighting potential gender disparities in household leadership. Studies indicate that male household dominance is linked to socio-cultural norms, financial resource control, and decision-making authority within Nigerian families [14]. The household size indicates that households with more than six (6) members increased from 66.64% in Wave 2 to 77.94% in Wave 3. The mean household size rose from 8 to 9, emphasizing the growing size of Nigerian households. This is reflective of traditional extended family structures and the economic need for labor sharing within households, as found in prior research [12]. The households within the income range of ₦100,000–₦1,000,000 constitute over 62% in both waves. Mean income rose sharply from ₦550,284.5 in Wave 2 to ₦2,577,347 in Wave 3, which suggests economic shifts or inflationary effects. The sharp increase in income levels may be influenced by inflation, government policy changes, and the adoption of new economic strategies within households, as noted by previous studies [11]. Most households reside in rural areas (90.38% in Wave 2 and 90.2% in Wave 3). Regionally, the Northwest (over 31%) has the highest household representation, while the Southwest has the lowest (4.15%). These findings are consistent with prior research, which indicates that the Northwest remains the most populated rural region due to agricultural dominance and historical settlement patterns [15]. The socioeconomic characteristics outlined above align with broader trends in Nigerian households, confirming demographic shifts, income growth, and regional disparities over time. These findings support existing literature on the evolving socioeconomic landscape of Nigerian families.

In Table 2, the food consumption patterns highlight variations in dietary habits and food availability. Cereals are the most consumed food group, with a slight increase in consumption from 97.26% (Wave 2) to 99.38% (Wave 3). This aligns with findings indicating cereals remain the primary staple in Nigerian diets due to affordability and availability [16,17]. Roots and tubers also show a steady increase in consumption (71.58% to 74.76%). This trend reflects increased reliance on cassava and yam as staple foods, consistent with previous studies on shifting consumption habits in Nigeria [18]. Vegetable consumption remains high, increasing slightly to 97.79% in Wave 3. The increase in vegetable intake aligns with research emphasizing greater awareness of nutritional benefits and improved access to fresh produce [19]. Fruit consumption almost doubled between the waves, from 26.48% to 47.84%, reflecting improved access or awareness. This significant increase is supported by studies indicating a rising trend in fruit intake due to health consciousness and government agricultural policies promoting fruit production [17].

Table 2:Food Consumption of Households in Nigeria.

Meat and fish consumption decreased slightly, with Wave 3 values reducing to 59.58% and 58.52%, respectively. The decline may be linked to price fluctuations and supply constraints, as prior studies suggest economic challenges impact protein consumption [20]. Egg consumption, though low, rose from 7.5% to 9.97%. This increase aligns with broader dietary shifts, where households incorporate more animal protein when financial conditions improve [18]. A remarkable increase in the consumption of condiments and beverages is observed, rising from 24.45% to 94.7%. This dramatic rise is consistent with findings that highlight changing consumer preferences toward processed and convenience foods [19]. The food consumption patterns presented in Table 2 reflect evolving dietary habits in Nigeria, influenced by economic, cultural, and policy-driven factors. These findings align with research indicating changes in food availability, affordability, and nutritional awareness.

Table 3 indicates that dietary diversity reflects the variety of food groups consumed, which is an essential indicator of households’ nourishment. The mean dietary diversity score increased from 7.09 in Wave 2 to 8.32 in Wave 3, showing improved dietary variety. This trend aligns with studies that emphasize the increasing diversification of diets in Nigeria due to urbanization and economic changes [21]. Urban households consistently demonstrate higher scores (9.06 in Wave 3) compared to rural households (8.24), reflecting urban advantages in food access. Previous research supports this finding, indicating that urban households have better access to diverse foods due to infrastructure, supermarkets, and higher disposable incomes [22,6]. The Southeast and South-South zones exhibit the highest scores (9.78 and 9.59, respectively, in Wave 3), indicating better food access and consumption diversity. This is consistent with studies that identify these regions as having more developed food markets and higher agricultural productivity [15]. Conversely, the Northeast and Northwest lag, with scores of 7.79 and 7.68 in Wave 3. These lower scores reflect persistent food insecurity and economic challenges in these regions, as documented in prior research on food access disparities in Nigeria [19]. The increase in dietary diversity scores suggests gradual improvements in food security and nutrition across Nigeria, though regional and urban-rural disparities persist. These findings align with research that highlights the role of socioeconomic factors in shaping food consumption patterns in Nigeria.

Table 3:Households’ Dietary Diversity Score across the Two Waves.

In Table 4, food security transitions assess households’ movement between food security and insecurity situations within the two periods considered. In Nigeria, about 33.45% of households persistently maintained their food security status (SEC2SEC3), while rural households (31.7%) trailed urban households (49.55%). Urban households show better resilience, with fewer transitions to food insecurity (SEC2INSEC3: 4.5%) compared to rural households (8.61%). Studies indicate that urban households generally have more stable access to food due to better infrastructure and economic opportunities [17].

Table 4:Food Security Transitions of Households across Sectors in Nigeria.

Note*: SEC2SEC3-Food secure in both waves; INSEC2SEC3-Food insecure in wave 2 but food secure in wave 3; SEC2INSEC3-Food secure in wave 2, but food insecure in wave 3; INSEC2INSEC3-Food insecure in both waves.

However, the regional transitions in Table 5 indicate that the Southeast demonstrates the highest food security retention (63.04% SEC2SEC3) and the lowest food insecurity persistence (4.35% INSEC2INSEC3). Conversely, the Northwest has the highest proportion of persistently food insecure households (35.73% INSEC2INSEC3). This aligns with research highlighting that food security challenges in Northern Nigeria stem from climate shocks, economic instability, and conflict [23].

Table 5:Food Security Transitions of Households across Zones in Nigeria.

In Table 6, key factors influencing food security transitions include gender, household size, zonal effects, and the rural-urban divide.

The likelihood of male-headed households to retain their food security status reduced by 0.1234, while it increased by 0.0999 for the household to be perpetually food insecure. This indicates that female-headed households are more likely to be food secure in both waves than their male counterpart is. This pattern suggests that female-headed households are likely to adopt more adaptive food security strategies, as found in prior research [24]. An additional member to a household increased households’ probability of maintaining food security status in both waves by 0.0202, while it reduced their food insecurity persistence by 0.0164, respectively. This affirms that households with more members tend to be more food secure in both waves. Households, most especially in rural areas, tend to engage their wards in productive enterprises at zero cost, thereby boosting their income level and ultimately their food security status [6]. The likelihood of households in the northcentral, southeast, south-south and southwest zones to retain their food security status increased by 0.0809, 0.4892, 0.3534 and 0.4301 respectively, relative to the northeast residents, while it reduced their probability of being food insecure in both waves by 0.0601, 0.2347, 0.1893 and 0.1954 respectively, relative to the base category. Households in the southern divide and northcentral zone tend to be more persistently food secure than those resident in the northeast zone of the country. This observation aligns with studies indicating that these regions benefit from stronger agricultural systems and economic stability [17]. Conversely, northeast residents tend to be perpetually in food insecurity situations relative to other zones, thereby necessitating a zone-focused food policy measure directed at households in the deprived zone [25].

The likelihood of rural residents to retain their food security status (SEC2SEC3) reduced by 0.1411, while their probability of perpetually maintaining food insecurity states increased by 0.0946, respectively. The finding illustrates that rural residents tend to be persistently food insecure in comparison to urban residents. Rural households’ likelihood to transition to food insecurity (SEC2INSEC3) increased by 0.0235, while their likelihood to remain persistently food insecure (INSEC2INSEC3) increased by 0.0946, compared to urban households. This is consistent with research showing that rural areas face greater vulnerability due to limited access to markets, poor infrastructure, and lower incomes [23,6]. These findings highlight the complex interplay between socio-economic factors and food security transition in Nigeria, emphasizing the need for targeted policy interventions to improve food access and stability across rural divide of the country (Table 6).

Table 6:Determinants of Food Security Transition among Households in Nigeria.

Note:< *, **, *** represent level of significance at 10%, 5% and 10% respectively Prob>chi2=0.0000 Log likelihood= -1345.8675